Source: WTO
Original Date Posted: 5/18/2020
First paragraph: The statistics presented in this report are unprecedented. We are witnessing data points and inflections in trends that would have been unimaginable only a few months ago. New statistical records are being set on an almost weekly basis. By the end of April, 212 countries, territories or areas had reported confirmed cases of COVID-19. In the first four months of 2020, more than 3 million cases of infection had been confirmed and more than 210,000 deaths. Some startling economic numbers include a 9% year-on-year fall in global production and manufacturing output, nowcasts that the value of global merchandise trade will fall by almost 27% in Q2 2020, the largest fall in global commodity prices on record (-20.4% between February and March 2020). On the social side, we see the shocking loss of employment – a decline of almost 10.5% in total working hours, the equivalent of 305 million full-time workers. Some 1.6 billion students have been affected by school closures and the crisis will push an additional 40 – 60 million people into extreme poverty. The impact is being felt in every region. For example, for the Gulf region, forecasts predict a decline in GDP growth of between 0.6% (best) and -1.9% (worst scenario) in 2020, but a recovery of between 0.5% and 2.5% in 2021. Whereas in Europe, statistics are already reporting that GDP fell by 3.5% in Q1 2020 – the sharpest fall since their time series began in 1995.
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